Bouris: CGT Changes Have 'Killed' Australia's Property Market

Financial commentator Mark Bouris has launched a blunt attack on Treasurer Jim Chalmers and the federal government's capital gains tax reforms, arguing the policy has gutted confidence in the asset class that underpins ordinary Australian family wealth.

Speaking on 4BC Brisbane, the Yellow Brick Road founder said a heavily redacted Treasury document had surfaced showing officials warned against the CGT changes before they were announced, predicting the reforms would push rents higher, reduce housing supply, and drag property values lower — outcomes he said were now playing out in real time.

"Someone needs to come clean and tell us what's going on," Bouris said, pointing to the contradiction between that leaked advice and the Treasurer's earlier assertion that Treasury had supported the direction. "Someone needs to reconcile all of this."

The criticism comes as values across many markets have softened, a shift Bouris said was cutting into the financial plans of millions of Australians. He estimated six to eight million property owners — those who purchased in the past five years and longer-term holders who built equity over decades — were now sitting on assets worth less than before the policy shift.

"You worked hard, paid your mortgage, did everything right and paid all your tax. All you were trying to do was look after your kids for the day you retire. Now you can't," he said.

Around two-thirds of household wealth in Australia sits in residential property, and Bouris flagged a troubling cascade effect: parents are shelving plans to help their adult children enter the market, while simultaneously deferring their own retirement because the asset they relied on has fallen in value. The intergenerational wealth transfer — the passing of property-backed savings from one generation to the next — is effectively stalling.

Yellow Brick Road's own lending figures reflect the broader market, with Bouris noting major banks have reported mortgage volumes down between 15 and 20 per cent. He also pointed to the unusual quiet of the spring auction season — historically the most active period on the real estate calendar.

"Normally this time of year there'd be houses up for auction, people turning up to bid, going to inspections. It's all just died off," he said.

Bouris drew a direct historical parallel to Paul Keating's decision in the 1980s to abolish negative gearing on investment properties. Keating reversed the policy within 18 months after the damage became undeniable. Bouris argued the current government had access to exactly that precedent — and proceeded regardless.

"It's not like they didn't have history to tell them what to do," he said. "Jim Chalmers knows Paul Keating's policies backwards. Yet he's still persisting with this."

Asked whether the government might reverse course before the changes take formal effect next July, Bouris considered it unlikely given the political cost of publicly admitting an error in an election year. He did not rule out prime ministerial intervention, noting Anthony Albanese had stepped in to override ministers on other sensitive policy calls.

On a broader note, Bouris reflected on Labor's traditional voter base — the working families who once made owning a modest home and passing it to their children their defining financial ambition. He suggested the government risked permanently alienating those very supporters through a policy that had eroded the single most meaningful asset they owned.

"Once upon a time the Labor Party looked after the working class," he said. "Their biggest pride and joy was the home they worked hard for and were paying off. Those people."