Property Market in Gridlock as Confidence Evaporates at Auctions

One of Australia's most experienced real estate auctioneers has sounded the alarm over a sharp loss of confidence in the property market, revealing he recently conducted auctions where not a single buyer registered to bid — an event he described as highly unusual in four decades of selling.

Tom Panos, a Sydney-based auctioneer who monitors conditions across the country, told the Today Show the current environment is unlike anything driven purely by price falls. The deeper problem, he argued, is collapsing transaction volumes.

"I did not get a single person registered at those auctions," Panos said. "Not one person actually thought, 'I'll register, there's bargains out there.' There was a total loss of confidence."

Panos was careful to stress that Australia does not have one unified property market. Conditions vary sharply by location and price bracket. Entry-level properties, buoyed by the federal government's 5 per cent deposit scheme and strong first-home buyer competition, have held up far better than the upper end. It is the mid-market that has taken the hardest hit, with prices in that segment down roughly 10 per cent in the worst-affected cities.

Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane are underperforming the rest of the country, while more affordable regional and interstate markets have fared comparatively better.

On whether the downturn represents a temporary correction or something more structural, Panos said it is likely both. He pointed out that Australian property recorded around 60 per cent growth during the COVID-era boom — a run he now believes was unsustainable. But he also identified a sequence of policy shocks that accelerated the decline.

"Prices started to come down long before the budget," he said, noting that rate rises from October and November last year had already spooked buyers who had expected cuts. The May federal budget — which caught many in the market off guard — then compounded sentiment, followed by changes to self-managed superannuation rules that further dampened investor appetite.

The result is what Panos calls a gridlock. Buyers can see genuine value in certain pockets — some areas are running 20 per cent below recent peaks — but they are holding off, fearful of buying into a still-falling market and ending up in negative equity. Sellers, meanwhile, are reluctant to accept prices below what their property fetched just months ago.

"Vendors are far more educated than we've ever seen," Panos said, crediting broad media coverage for helping owners come to grips with the new reality. But he acknowledged some remain anchored to peak valuations. His pitch to those clients: the property they are buying has also dropped, so the changeover math often still works in their favour.

For homeowners anxious about their position, Panos urged calm. "Forty years in this business says there are seasons of hope and seasons of pain," he said. "At the moment it's a cold season — but it's going to be just fine."