One Nation Eyes Perth By-Election Upset in Labor Stronghold

Secret Harbour has long been considered rock-solid Labor country, but One Nation is betting the political winds are shifting enough to pull off a by-election upset in Perth's southern suburbs.

The minor party is throwing its weight behind the contest with an unusual degree of confidence, framing the race as a popularity test for both major parties at a moment when voter dissatisfaction with the political mainstream remains elevated across Western Australia.

By-elections have a history of delivering surprises that general elections rarely produce. Turnout tends to dip, protest votes carry more weight, and disengaged voters who might ordinarily stick with habit sometimes drift toward alternatives. One Nation is banking on exactly that dynamic.

The party has positioned itself as the voice of outer-suburban and regional voters who feel overlooked by Labor's focus on inner-city constituencies and green-energy priorities. In areas like Secret Harbour — a coastal community south of Perth where mortgage pressures, cost-of-living stress and commuting distances are daily realities — that message finds some natural traction.

Labor is not taking the challenge lightly. The seat's safe status is an asset the party cannot afford to squander, particularly with state and federal governments both needing to maintain credibility on economic management. A One Nation breakthrough, even a narrow one, would send an uncomfortable signal about the durability of Labor's hold on working-class and aspirational outer-suburban voters.

The Liberals, who have struggled to rebuild their own presence across Perth's southern corridor since their 2021 state election wipeout, are watching closely. A strong One Nation showing at their expense could further complicate the conservative vote split that has plagued the right across Western Australia for years.

Political analysts note that One Nation's strategy here mirrors campaigns it has successfully run in Queensland, where the party has at times converted frustration with incumbents into genuine representation at both state and federal level. Whether that playbook translates to a Perth coastal suburb remains the open question.

Polling ahead of the by-election has been limited, leaving both campaigns operating with imprecise read-outs of voter sentiment. On-the-ground canvassing suggests the race is tighter than the seat's historical margins would imply, though Labor insiders remain cautious about overstating One Nation's threat.

The result will be watched nationally as a bellwether for minor-party momentum heading into the next electoral cycle, with One Nation's federal leadership keen to point to any breakthrough as proof the party is on an upward trajectory.