Cut-Off Low to Drench Southeast Queensland Mid-Week

A significant cut-off low pressure system is bearing down on Queensland this week, with meteorologists warning of widespread rainfall and thunderstorms across the southeast quarter of the state from mid-week onward.

As of Monday 25 May, the system was located between Adelaide and Kangaroo Island, still in its early stages of development but already beginning to pull tropical moisture southward through inland Australia. The low is expected to remain slow-moving over South Australia for the next day or two before tracking northeast toward the New South Wales and Queensland border.

Unlike the conventional lows that race eastward across southern Australia driven by the jet stream, a cut-off low has effectively detached from that high-altitude steering current. This separation allows the system to meander unpredictably, lingering over affected regions and producing prolonged rainfall rather than the quick passage of a standard frontal system.

Higgins Storm Chasing meteorologist Jason Higgins explained the distinction on Monday: the jet stream, which normally pushes weather systems along from west to east, bends sharply southward around the low, leaving it isolated. Eventually the jet stream will reassert itself and nudge the system northeast, but not before it has time to generate substantial weather across Queensland.

The system is forecast to cross into southern Queensland — particularly the Southern Downs region — on Thursday, sparking scattered showers, rain and thunderstorms across the southeast before shifting offshore into New South Wales on Friday. A separate ex-tropical low sitting well out in the Pacific is already pushing a light onshore easterly flow onto the coast, producing patchy cloud and occasional drizzle along coastal areas ahead of the main event.

Rainfall totals of 15 to 25 millimetres are expected across a broad swathe from Rockhampton south through Emerald and Clermont, and east of Charleville. Isolated heavier falls in the 50 to 75 millimetre range are considered most likely across the Darling Downs and Granite Belt, where the combination of upper-level cold air and moisture-laden inflow could trigger more intense convective activity.

There is also a chance of rain and storms in the far southwest, including the Birdsville area and parts of the southern inland, though the bulk of the activity is expected to remain concentrated in the southeast quarter of the state.

Forecasters caution that precise rainfall totals may shift over coming days as the system is still three to four days out and its track remains fluid. Residents in the Darling Downs, Granite Belt, and broader southeast Queensland should monitor updated forecasts closely and be prepared for a wet end to the working week.