Strong El Niño Developing: Dry Outlook for Queensland in 2026

A significant El Niño is taking shape in the Pacific Ocean, and forecasters are warning that Queensland and much of eastern Australia face a prolonged stretch of below-average rainfall stretching well into the second half of 2026.

The warning comes from Higgins Storm Chasing, whose mid-May forecast update highlighted rapidly warming sea surface temperatures across the central Pacific. The key indicator — the Niño 3.4 region in the central Pacific — has risen by approximately one degree Celsius over just six weeks, climbing from around minus 0.5°C to plus 0.5°C. While that reading still sits below the official El Niño threshold of 0.8°C, the rate of warming has analysts on alert.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology's forecast chart, the Niño 3.4 region is on track to breach El Niño thresholds by late May or early June. More strikingly, the majority of global climate models have consistently flagged the possibility of the temperature anomaly exceeding plus two degrees above normal — a classification that would make this a very strong El Niño event. Forecasters say the most likely window for that peak is from August onwards, continuing through the remainder of the year.

What drives those atmospheric conditions is a reversal in where the Pacific's warmth concentrates. During a La Niña, moisture from the central Pacific feeds into northern and eastern Australia, supporting above-average rainfall. In an El Niño, rising hot air over the central Pacific pulls air away from Australia instead, replacing moisture-laden easterly winds with drier southwesterly and westerly flows off the land — a pattern that historically delivers significantly reduced rainfall.

European Centre model data for the next three to six months already reflects that signal. Southeast Queensland sits in a zone rated between 70 and 100 per cent likely to experience below-average rainfall, placing it in the lowest rainfall tercile. Broader Queensland areas are flagged at 60 to 70 per cent probability of the same outcome. Inland southern Queensland and border regions with New South Wales are of particular concern, with some areas already running five to six months behind on rainfall totals and native vegetation showing stress.

Coastal southeastern Queensland may see some temporary relief, with shower activity continuing over the coming weeks driven by an exceptionally strong high-pressure system sitting near New Zealand at 1041 hectopascals. That system is generating long-fetch southeasterly winds sweeping from New Zealand across the Tasman Sea and onto the Queensland and New South Wales coastlines, delivering isolated coastal showers. Inland areas receive no such benefit.

Cooler sea surface temperatures developing around Western Australia and northern Australia are consistent with what typically accompanies an El Niño setup — a further sign that the pattern is well underway. Forecasters intend to issue regular updates as the event matures over coming months.