Queensland storms forecast to bring up to 150mm of rain

A slow-moving trough and a large upper-level system are expected to bring thunderstorms and heavy rain to parts of Queensland over the weekend, according to a forecast published on Friday 16 October by weather channel CyclonesOZ. The presenter said up to 150 mm of rain was possible over the following couple of days. This is a forecaster's model-based outlook, not an official warning. Readers should check the Bureau of Meteorology for current warnings.

The forecast began with a recap of the previous 24 hours. Central Queensland recorded good rain across a wide area. Many places collected more than 50 mm and a few passed 120 mm, which the presenter called exceptional for the time of year as the wet season approaches. Some areas missed out because the rain was patchy.

In New South Wales, a severe thunderstorm near Bourke produced giant hailstones and destructive wind gusts. The presenter said it developed in the area he had flagged the day before.

Friday: storms in the west

Friday was expected to be calmer near the coast, but widespread thunderstorms were forecast across western Queensland. Longreach and Charleville were named as likely to see storms, with locally severe storms possible in the state's northwest. Rainfall totals were expected to build quickly under the storms.

Saturday: flash flooding concern in the south

The trough was forecast to strengthen on Saturday as a large upper trough moved in. The presenter said the atmosphere would stay very moist through the lower levels, favouring heavy rain over southern Queensland.

He described Saturday as a day of concern for flash flooding around Roma and Charleville. He said he was most focused on areas just north of the Warrego Highway, including Augathella, Tambo and possibly the Injune area in the central highlands. Heavy downpours were possible there on Saturday afternoon and evening.

The presenter said the rain would come from patchy, slow-moving convergence zones, similar to those seen south of Mackay the day before. This time they would sit further inland, in an area that may be less able to cope with very heavy falls.

Sunday: easing, then storms return

Rain was expected to ease on Sunday morning, then pick up again in the afternoon as instability increased. Falls were forecast to be lighter than on Saturday but still thundery, with a severe storm risk further inland towards the west.

South-east Queensland: light, patchy rain

For Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast and the Southern Downs, the forecast pointed to light, patchy and at times drizzly rain rather than heavy falls. The presenter expected daily totals of 5 to 10 mm along the south-east coast. The Sunshine Coast could see up to 20 mm, and parts of the Southern Downs could reach high single figures.

Sunday could bring more meaningful totals as the rain contracts towards the coast. Localised convergence along the coast could produce heavier falls in places. Over five days, parts of the south-east coast were forecast to reach locally moderate totals, though the presenter said steady accumulation was the main expectation.