Labor slumps in Victorian polls as royal commission airs claims

Victorian Labor under Premier Ben Carroll has had a punishing week. Two new polls put the party in historically weak territory, and early hearings of a royal commission into the construction sector produced a run of damaging headlines. The state election is just over two weeks away.

A Redbridge poll had Labor trailing 43 to 57 on a two-party-preferred basis. At the last election Labor won the same measure 55 to 45. A Demos poll published in the Herald Sun put Labor's primary vote at 18 per cent and the Greens at 17 per cent. Both are unusual figures for the two parties. The Greens result may prove an outlier, and the ballot box will settle that.

Guardian Australia's Victorian correspondent, Benita Kolovos, said a later poll showing Labor on 23 per cent was greeted by some Labor MPs with relief, even though the figure remained dire. She noted that Jacinta Allan was reportedly at 28 per cent shortly before she was replaced as premier. The argument for the change was that Labor needed a primary vote with a three in front of it to stand a chance. Kolovos said many in the party now accept that is unlikely to happen.

The royal commission, called by Carroll to examine corruption in the construction sector, has held four days of public hearings. Witnesses from builders have described being pulled into meetings and told to comply with the CFMEU. One witness told the commission that aligning with the union would bring favourable treatment on future projects, naming airport rail as an example. The evidence suggested the union, rather than government, was effectively deciding who received work.

A CFMEU official also told the commission under oath that he was offered a gold bracelet to curry favour. He said about 20 officials had been offered the same gift.

Kolovos said the commission was only beginning and that many witnesses were still to be heard. Some Labor figures argue that calling the inquiry shows the party is principled and willing to rebuild its culture in public, and that it is about more than politics. Kolovos said she was somewhat sceptical of that framing so close to an election.

The week also brought trouble for other parties. One Nation and the Liberals each lost two candidates over social media posts. One Nation had to tell its candidates that praising Hitler is unacceptable. Carroll's Labor, by contrast, has kept all of its candidates. Opposition Leader Jess Wilson continues to run a small-target campaign.

The discussion was recorded on the ABC's Politics Now podcast with Raf Epstein of 774 ABC Melbourne.