One Nation surges to 30% in new poll, matching Labor

Australian politics is heading into unfamiliar territory, with a new poll showing One Nation has climbed back to 30 per cent support — matching Labor and leaving the Coalition a distant third at 19 per cent in its latest reading.

The result, discussed on 4BC Brisbane with federal political editor Michael Pack, is fuelling talk of a genuine three-way contest heading toward the next federal election, expected in 2028.

Pack noted the conventional benchmark for winning government outright — a primary vote above 40 per cent — is currently out of reach for all three major players. Yet that does not necessarily mean a hung parliament is inevitable. Labor demonstrated at the 2025 election that primary votes in the low-to-mid thirties can translate into a comfortable majority when preference flows fall the right way. The party currently holds 94 seats in the lower house despite a primary vote of roughly 32 to 34 per cent at that poll.

"Whoever wants to form government is going to have to rely heavily on preference flows to get candidates over the line," Pack said. "That dynamic is only going to become more important."

For One Nation, sustaining 30 per cent in the polls is one challenge — converting it into seats is another. Pack pointed out the party needs to identify and actively promote candidates in winnable electorates well ahead of polling day if it is to have any realistic shot at becoming the official opposition, let alone forming government.

Pauline Hanson's recent European trip, which drew criticism given her party's focus on cost-of-living pressures facing ordinary Australians, appears to have done little damage to her numbers. If anything, Pack suggested, her straightforward response — acknowledging the trip, noting it was self-funded and cost taxpayers nothing — has resonated with supporters who appreciate plain-speaking over polished political spin.

A Channel Seven Spotlight interview in which Hanson faced questions about her policy platform also raised fresh scrutiny. Pack said the interview attempted to draw out more detail on where One Nation actually stands on issues beyond its well-known positions on immigration and climate change. Health, education, defence spending, and welfare policy remain areas where the party has yet to offer detailed commitments or costings.

"There's still 18 months to two years before an election," Pack observed. "There will be time for One Nation to announce more of their policies and explain how they plan to fund them. But those are answers voters will eventually need."

For now, the polling suggests a bloc of Australians — some lifelong Labor or Liberal voters — are prepared to back One Nation as a protest against the major parties. Whether that sentiment translates into seats, or simply reshapes where preferences flow on election night, remains the central question for strategists across the political spectrum.