Is Australian Politics Facing a Shift Not Seen Since WWII?

It has been a bruising fortnight for the federal government. A historic 16th cash rate increase, a muddle over the payments surcharge and an Australian Taxation Office backflip on credit card payments have combined to leave the budget looking shaky, according to a panel of political commentators.

The surcharge episode drew the sharpest criticism. The government, one commentator argued, appeared to believe that removing the surcharge would make the cost simply vanish. In reality the cost has to land somewhere, and the government expected business to absorb it. Then its own tax office signalled it was not prepared to do the same. The panel described that as a case of "do as we say, not as we do", particularly galling for small business owners who are used to being chased promptly by the ATO.

That, the panel suggested, is why the issue has cut through. Unlike the technicalities of monetary policy, it is something every voter can understand.

The commentators also argued the episode exposed how far Labor sits from small business. They noted that the Liberal side and the crossbench include people with small business backgrounds, whereas Labor's main pathway into politics runs through the union movement. The Prime Minister's heavy schedule of summits and overseas travel, they said, risks widening that perceived gap.

Pain ahead, and a fractured electorate

Looking toward the next election, roughly 18 months away, one panellist predicted economic conditions will worsen unless something dramatic changes. Voters are deeply dissatisfied with both major parties, and the fracturing of the vote is the government's main hope: Anthony Albanese, the panel said, evidently believes a split opposition across the Coalition and One Nation will deliver him another term.

The danger, they warned, is that as the election nears, more backbenchers will conclude they cannot hold their seats. The Prime Minister might survive, but many colleagues may not, and that dynamic can turn politically dangerous quickly.

Three parties in the twenties

The latest Newspoll puts Labor, One Nation and the Coalition all in the 20 per cent range. Labor is marginally ahead of One Nation on 28, while the Liberals are comfortably on 20 for the first time in a while. Commentators said relying on a divided right is not a strategy when a government is so unpopular.

A once-in-generations realignment

One panellist argued the situation amounts to a tectonic shift not seen since the Second World War. Past challengers to the major parties were real but limited. The Democratic Labor Party kept Labor out of office for 23 years without ever becoming a large force, using its numbers to make itself a nuisance. The Democrats, the Greens and the teals followed. One Nation, the panel said, is something different again.

The major parties once collected about 80 per cent of the primary vote. That has been sliding since the Rudd era, and on current numbers it is down to around half. The commentator's conclusion was that politics is being remade, and the established order may be blown up for a time before it settles again.