One Nation Shocks Labor in WA By-Election Upset
A Western Australian by-election has sent tremors through federal Labor ranks after One Nation claimed a seat long considered among the safest in the state, delivering what political observers are calling a seismic result that could foreshadow serious losses at the next federal poll.
The seat of Secret Harbour, south of Perth, swung dramatically away from Labor on Saturday, with the party shedding roughly 22 per cent of its primary vote to One Nation. The scale of the defeat has prompted blunt warnings that no seat — Labor or Liberal — should be considered secure heading into the federal election cycle.
Speaking on 4BC Brisbane, federal political editor Michael Pachi said the result was historic by any measure. "There is no way that Labor would have been expecting that sort of thrashing," he said, adding that many voters appeared to be sending a deliberate message to Canberra rather than simply registering dissatisfaction with the state government.
"People feel as though life is a lot harder than it should be," Pachi said. "The May budget was not a good sell for the government and they really haven't come out of that yet. The housing supply issue hasn't been resolved, and people are starting to feel the pinch."
The result has sparked pointed speculation about Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who holds the outer-Brisbane seat of Rankin. Commentators noted that if a swing of comparable magnitude were to materialise federally, Chalmers would be among those facing defeat. "Jim Chalmers is unemployed on these numbers," one broadcaster said bluntly.
Pachi agreed the warning was credible. "The makeup of that seat could really put him in peril. He potentially could lose his seat at the next election."
Pauline Hanson, whose party took Secret Harbour, drew a direct comparison to One Nation's earlier capture of the safe Liberal seat of Farrer and declared: "No seat is safe." The Prime Minister, speaking at Labor's Queensland state conference in Brisbane on the same day, dismissed One Nation as dangerous and divisive — a framing that critics argued badly missed the point of Saturday's result.
Former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce told 4BC Breakfast that Labor's disconnect from working Australians was the underlying driver. "Every time they open their mouth, it's about a new regulation, a new control over your life," Joyce said. "There are no labourers on their front bench. It's just a thing of the past."
Analysts pointed to cost-of-living pressures, over-regulation, and a perception that the party no longer speaks for the conservative working class as the forces pushing once-reliable Labor voters toward alternatives. Whether the Secret Harbour result is an isolated protest or a preview of federal conditions is a question Labor will be urgently trying to answer.
Frequently Asked Questions
One Nation won the Western Australian seat of Secret Harbour, which had been considered one of Labor's safest state seats. Labor lost approximately 22 per cent of its primary vote in the contest.
Political analysts have warned that if a swing similar to Secret Harbour were repeated at the federal level, Treasurer Jim Chalmers could be at risk of losing his Brisbane seat of Rankin.
Commentators attributed the swing to cost-of-living frustrations, dissatisfaction with the May federal budget, unresolved housing pressures, and a broader sense that Labor has lost touch with working-class Australians.