One Nation surge splits right-of-centre vote as major parties shed support

Australian politics is experiencing a structural realignment not seen in generations, with combined support for Labor and the Coalition falling below 50 per cent in recent polling — a dramatic collapse from the more than 93 per cent of first-preference votes the major parties shared just decades ago.

The figures tell a stark story. At the close of the Howard government era roughly 20 years ago, Labor and the Coalition together still commanded around 85 per cent of the vote. By last year's federal election that figure had slipped to 65 per cent. Now, according to current polling, fewer than one in two Australians intend to give their first preference to either major party.

Political observers are pointing to One Nation as the primary driver of fragmentation on the right of centre, with the party drawing voters away from the Liberal-National Coalition in numbers that could prove decisive at state and federal levels. Some are comparing the magnitude of the shift to the Democratic Labor Party split of the 1950s, which locked Labor out of federal government for years.

Pauline Hanson, One Nation's founder and president, rejects the argument that her party's growth hands advantage to Labor. Speaking ahead of the Victorian election, she maintained that voters who place One Nation first and the Liberals second are still voting against a Labor government — and that without One Nation in the contest, those seats would fall to the left anyway.

The voters driving this change are diverse and don't always fit the profile critics might expect. Small business owners in suburban areas describe feeling abandoned by the traditional centre-right parties on economic policy. Regional communities cite a sense that mainstream politics has stopped listening. For many, Hanson represents a blunt disruption they see as overdue.

The One Nation leader herself has faced sustained hostility, particularly during visits to Melbourne, where protests have at times turned aggressive. She acknowledges there are parts of Australia she now avoids for safety reasons, while insisting she will not be silenced. Her pitch is less party-political than personal — positioning herself as an ordinary Australian who feels compelled to speak when others won't.

Yet for all the grassroots imagery, One Nation's internal structure is anything but democratic. Under the party's own constitution, Hanson holds the sole authority to name her successor as president — no membership vote, no executive process. She confirmed she has not yet chosen a replacement, declining to confirm speculation around figures including Barnaby Joyce, who joined the party eight months ago, or her daughter. Asked to write her choice in a sealed envelope, she laughed off the suggestion.

Whether One Nation has reached the peak of its influence or is approaching a new phase of genuine political power remains an open question. What is no longer in question is that the two-party system Australians have known for most of the past century is being fundamentally tested.