Queensland Crime Rate Hits 23-Year High Despite Government Claims

Queensland's overall crime rate has climbed to its highest level in roughly 23 years, according to publicly available Queensland Police Service data — a figure that sits in stark contrast to the state government's recent claims of progress on law and order.

Associate Professor Terry Goldsworthy, a criminologist at Bond University and former Queensland Police Detective Inspector, says the government has been selective in the statistics it presents to the public. While ministers have pointed to Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showing falling victim numbers as proof their "adult crime, adult time" legislation is working, Goldsworthy argues that data tells only part of the story.

"The ABS data only captures a number of offences — not all offences that occur," he said. "And the problem with linking it to the adult crime, adult time legislation is that victim numbers were already declining under Labor in 2024, before those laws came into effect."

The QPS recorded crime figures, which are updated to July this year and track all offence categories, show a more complete picture. Overall crime rose about 3.5 per cent in the 2025-26 financial year. While offences against the person — including assaults and robberies — did fall, property crime remained largely unchanged, and a broader category covering domestic violence breaches, drug offences, and weapons charges surged by 10 per cent.

Goldsworthy also raised concerns that domestic violence data appears to be counted separately from general crime statistics, potentially understating the true scale of victimisation across the state.

The government's latest response — a "breach bail, go to jail" mandatory sentencing measure — has drawn criticism from the criminologist on both practical and financial grounds. He estimates the policy could cost close to $1 billion annually to implement and sustain, yet targets bail conditions rather than the underlying offences driving community concern.

"We're not incarcerating people for the crimes they commit — we're incarcerating them for breach of bail," Goldsworthy said. "Someone on bail for drink driving who commits one of the nominated offences would go to jail under this. It's immaterial what the original offence was."

He pointed to the high-profile case of Emma Trillio, who was struck by her own car after offenders broke into her home, as an example of where the law's logic breaks down. Under the new framework, the perpetrators could face longer imprisonment for breaching bail conditions than for the actual offences of unlawful use of a motor vehicle, grievous bodily harm, or robbery — a result Goldsworthy described as deeply problematic.

His view is that the real lever for reducing crime lies in tightening who receives bail in the first place, not in mandatory sentences for bail breaches after the fact. "The granting of bail is the problem — repeat offenders being allowed back out," he said. "Addressing the principal offences themselves is what we should be focused on."

Critics argue the state government has also manipulated comparisons by skipping years in data sets to make crime trends appear more favourable, raising questions about transparency at a time when hundreds of Queenslanders are affected by crime every day.