Labor Can't Ignore One Nation as Conference Exposes Cracks

The Australian Labor Party's 50th National Conference in Adelaide has thrown a spotlight on an uncomfortable political reality for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese: One Nation is no longer a fringe concern that can be safely dismissed.

Held at the Adelaide Convention Centre, the two-day gathering brought together union delegates, members of parliament and rank-and-file members to thrash out some of the most contentious policy questions of the current term — from gambling reform and the AUKUS submarine deal to a proposed tax on gas exports.

But it was the Prime Minister's repeated references to One Nation during his keynote address that caught many observers off guard. Albanese mentioned the party by name on more than one occasion, though he stopped short of naming Pauline Hanson directly. For political watchers, the signal was unmistakable: Labor is rattled.

A poll released this week showed One Nation's primary vote running neck-and-neck with Labor's, sitting in the high twenties to around thirty per cent. Despite increased scrutiny of the party's policy platform — with analysts identifying weaknesses in several of Hanson's announced positions — voter intentions have barely shifted. The trend, according to those on the ground in Adelaide, appears firmly entrenched.

The alarm is particularly acute in regional Queensland and parts of South Australia, where a number of Labor seats are considered vulnerable to a One Nation surge. Radio callers to Brisbane's 4BC have been telling a stark story: lifelong Labor voters declaring they have permanently switched their allegiance. A recent Hanson interview on the station racked up more than 30,000 YouTube views within days, underlining the intense public appetite for the minor party's message.

Complicating matters for Labor is an unexpected policy overlap. One Nation has been vocally pushing for a tax on energy companies exporting liquefied natural gas overseas — a position also championed by Labor's internal environmental caucus. While the Albanese government has publicly ruled out pursuing such a levy in the near term, the simultaneous pressure from its own left flank and from One Nation is unlikely to ease.

The government's $5 billion commitment to the Osborne shipyards in Adelaide — earmarked for AUKUS-class submarine construction — drew protests outside the convention centre from within Labor's own ranks. A significant cohort of rank-and-file members remain opposed to the defence pact, arguing the funds should be redirected elsewhere. The broad assessment among conference observers, however, is that any formal motion against AUKUS will fall on deaf ears and the government's course will remain unchanged.

Gambling reform also featured on the agenda, with delegates expected to debate tighter restrictions on betting advertising and product design.

The conference underscores a challenging moment for a government navigating simultaneous pressure from its own base, an emboldened minor party eating into its primary vote, and a policy agenda that satisfies neither the left flank nor the swing voters it must retain to govern.